“The Real GDP is likely to print 4.3 per cent YoY in 3Q vs 2Q’s 5 per cent, nearing the trough for this cycle,” revealed DBS in its daily economic report.
Weak spots in the crucial consumption sector are most likely to be stretch into the quarter along with moderate private sector activity.
Surveys conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reveal subdued consumer sentiments towards income and employment conditions.
Indirect and direct tax collections also reflected less demand, as did slow credit growth as banks and non-banks tightened due diligence, it said.
Providing a little support, fiscal spending likely improved after slower disbursements in the first half of the year due to the general elections.
Net trade is unlikely to be a drag with weak exports accompanied by a sharper fall in non-oil, non-gold imports.
“Under GVA (Gross Value Added), we expect 4.1 per cent print, with most sectors barring public administration to have slowed in the quarter,” said DBS Bank.
The third-quarter economic numbers are likely to be released to be this week.