The revision of projection is followed after the economic growth in the July-September quarter went down to 4.5 percent, as against 5 percent in the Apr-June quarter. This signifies the growth in the first half was 4.8 percent, visibly lower than 7.5 percent reported in the same period of fiscal 2019.
“Weak growth in the first half of this fiscal and just a mild recovery in the second half will drag down our GDP forecast significantly,” said Crisil in a release.
Crisil is in a view that the second half will witness a mild pick-up in growth directed by an adequate monsoon and level-up to the rural economy, some hinderance of repo rate cuts, and revelations recent pick-up in government spending.
Crisil noted that the Indian economy is passing through a higher than anticipated slowdown, as depression in the real sector and depreciation in the financial sector feed into each other. Moreover, slowing global economic growth, declining trade intensity, and lack of clarity over the US-China trade conflict are creating major obstacles.